Let’s focus on full-season stats of hitters who are widely available on waivers. I filtered everyone for a strikeout rate below 20% and an xwOBA of at least .330 (average is about .320). These expected stats are via Statcast/Baseball Savant.
Basically these low-K hitters should be hitting well above average. The list includes the most underrated hitter in baseball, in my opinion ,and in the opinion of the stats.
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Why Ks? Like many of you, I’m in a head-to-head league that counts strikeouts as a category. But even if you don’t count them, they are really a drain on hitting.
I’m going to divulge right away the identity of the most-underrated hitter I’m talking about. He’s been mentioned in this space before. But here he is, still just 23% owned despite catcher eligibility. Yainer Díaz has an 18.1% K%. His expected average is .286. His expected slugging is a super-elite .565 (stats are as of Thursday). Yes, he barely walks, so his OBP is bad; but most of us don’t play in OBP leagues. That does not explain his paltry rostership. He also starts five or six games a week. While he’s been unlucky, his actual OPS is over .800. He’s a righty who has crushed right-handed pitching. His bad lefty splits are almost certainly a small-sample fluke. He’ll hit them for sure… and when he does, Murder She Wrote.
If you’re in a dynasty league, please get Díaz. He’s going to be an All-Star next year. I know his framing stinks but the robot umps will be here. Soon. Maybe. If he doesn’t catch (he throws well), he won’t be an All-Star but he’ll be better for us in 2024. He’ll probably play every day at DH or 1B and retain catcher eligibility. He has and will continue to hit well enough for first base or DH. Look at his Savant page and tell me that’s not a very good DH. (But I bet that framing is not that stable and can be learned.)
Now let’s examine other top available hitters, sorted by highest rostership rates (though all are under 50% owned).
Keibert Ruiz is another hitter who’s been on the list before. He has a 9.3% K%. His expected average is .274. I think that’s what he’s likely to hit going forward. His power is average but he’s a .331 wOBA hitter. You’re getting a guy clearly better than average, league adjusted. He’s rostered in only 46% of Yahoo leagues. His actual OPS should be about .740, not .680 — huge difference. (Note: I’m never going to bet actual stats over expected. I’m not even stipulating they’re predictive, rather I’m merely saying they’re more predictive than actual stats.)
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LaMonte Wade Jr. is 15% owned. He’s more of a deeper league play but is so dominant as a strong-side platoon bat (.277/.418/.445 actual stats) and does even better in expected ones (.372 xwOBA, about 20% better than average). The good thing if you need him in shallower formats is he bats leadoff when he does play, so you’re clawing back some PAs lost vs. lefties.
Matt Vierling is pretty much playing every day now for the Tigers but is just 4% rostered. He is more of a batting average play, with a .277 expected average (though note that in the last 36 games, he’s hit .312). You can’t count on power, but it’s not zero — it’s about 10-12 expected homers for a full season. He has double-digit speed, perhaps, but has been very inefficient. If he continues his stretch of .300 hitting, I would not be surprised.
David Peralta is 1% rostered and is an alternative to Wade as a strong-side platoon bat. He’s in a good lineup when he plays, of course. His expected average is .288, quite strong, and his expected isolated power is closer to average than his actual ISO suggests. Ideally he’s for 15-team leagues. If you play shallower, he is limited to some batting average value.
The last player, also 1% rostered, is more a speculative play. Edward Olivares is a right-handed hitter. So there are no platoon issues (righties all can hit righties or they’re not big leaguers). He’s also, as far as I can tell, a good hitter: 17.1% Ks, .268 expected average, average power (.438 slugging/.170 ISO). His xwOBA is .331, solid/good. We all know the Royals are not exactly overflowing with competent hitters. So why doesn’t Olivares play every day? I know he’s slumped lately (all hitters slump) and was on the trade block. But why? He’s 27 with some power and some speed. Tell me this isn’t a playable Savant page. On the Royals. I think you can get Olivares in some AL Only leagues. But I’d at least roster him in mixers. If he played near every day, my forecast for him for the balance of the season would be .275 with five homers and six or seven steals.
(Top photo: Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
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