Reds top 20 prospects 2023: Keith Law ranks Cincinnatis minor league farm system

The Reds have gone for a lot of upside in the draft and trades recently, mixing in some probability guys in both arenas. The result is a system that could produce three or four stars but also should help supply the major-league roster with quality regulars and bench pieces, allowing them to (in theory) spend to acquire or keep those stars.

GO DEEPER

MLB prospect rankings 2023: Keith Law’s complete guide to every farm system

The ranking

1. Elly De La Cruz, OF (Top 100 ranking: No. 4)

Age: 21 (as of 7/1/2023) | 6-5 | 200 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018

With the possible exception of Chourio, De La Cruz is probably the highest-upside prospect on the top 100 — it’s 80 power, 80 speed, and at least a 70 arm, with crazy bat speed and quick-twitch actions all over the place. De La Cruz hit 28 homers between High A and Double A last year, with a .304/.359/.586 composite line, along with 47 steals (89 percent), but a 30.7 percent strikeout rate that speaks to his overaggressiveness. He has the bat speed and coverage to make good contact with pitches out of the strike zone, but also has issues with pitches in the zone, especially fastballs in the upper half. That’s not unusual for a very young hitter who’s learned from experience that he can mash against almost anything, but it’s also not the ideal formula for major-league success, so he will have to tighten up his pitch selection going forward. He’s got the actions, speed, and arm for shortstop, although at 6-5 he’s at the upper end of the size spectrum for the position, and there’s a good chance he’ll outgrow it and end up at third or in center. Nobody listed at 6-5 or taller has played shortstop regularly in the majors, and only seven guys at least that tall have played it at all, notably Troy Glaus. That’s not a guarantee, but it’s the base rate here, and shows the bar De La Cruz has to clear to stay at the position. However, this kind of bat speed, power, and foot speed also means he could be a star at pretty much any position he plays, as it’s easy 30-35 home run power and the potential for high BABIPs even if he strikes out a quarter of the time. And if at some point he makes a big move in his pitch selection and recognition, he might end up as the best player in baseball.

2. Cam Collier, 3B (No. 17)

Age: 18 | 6-2 | 210 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 18 in 2022

Collier was the No. 2 player on my draft board this year, as the 17-year-old graduated from high school two years early and played the spring at two-year Chipola College, outhitting most of his older teammates while facing pitchers two to four years older than he was. The Reds got him at the 18th pick, paying him an over-slot $5 million bonus, and naturally I think they got a steal. The son of former Pirates outfielder Lou Collier, Cam projects to hit for average and for power thanks to a beautiful left-handed swing and exceptional bat speed. He’s short to the ball, with loose hands and plenty of wrist and hand strength to drive the ball to all fields. He has plus raw power now but doesn’t always get to it in games because he can drift forward over his front side, which fortunately isn’t that difficult to fix. He’s a former shortstop with a plus arm and should be no worse than an average defender at third, although some scouts voiced concerns in the spring that he’d end up too big for the position. I don’t think that’s likely, and he’s athletic enough to stay on the dirt. The bat is the carrying tool; with some modest adjustments, he should hit for high averages and power, and the fact that he’ll play all of next year at 18 also gives him more time to develop than anyone else on this list.

3. Noelvi Marte, SS/3B (No. 49)

Age: 21 | 6-1 | 181 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018

Marte was one of the key players going to the Reds in the trade that sent Luis Castillo to the Mariners at the 2022 trade deadline, both a testament to the value of his bat and to the Mariners’ questions about his long-term position. Signed for $1.55 million back in 2018, Marte didn’t make his U.S. debut until 2021 due to the pandemic, but he’s hit .275/.369/.459 in the past two seasons at both levels of A-ball, all before he turned 21. He has an easy, powerful swing that has produced 36 homers the past two years, and has excellent bat control, which has kept his strikeout rate down even though he can be aggressive early in counts. He’s still playing shortstop, but there’s no chance he’s staying there long term as he’s already gotten too big for the position and his footwork isn’t quick enough, but he has a plus arm and could end up an average defender at third if he maintains his conditioning. Marte filling out so much at age 20 does raise the concern he’s going to end up a corner outfielder, or that he’ll end up slowing down in his mid-20s, but his continued offensive performance also makes it much more likely he’s at least a valuable bench player — more floor, less ceiling, at least compared to a year ago. If he works on conditioning and moves to third base now to begin learning the position, he could still be an above-average regular with high OBPs and 20-ish homers a year.

Noelvi Marte (Larry Goren / Four Seam Images via AP)

4. Edwin Arroyo, SS (No. 58)

Age: 19 | 6-0 | 175 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 48 in 2021

Arroyo was one of the youngest players in the 2021 draft class, so he played at 18 in his first full year in pro ball, during which he also found himself part of the trade that sent Luis Castillo to Seattle. He was the youngest regular in the Cal League before the trade and hit .316/.385/.514 there, struggling after he moved to the Reds’ system as he wore down at the end of the summer. He’s an above-average defender at shortstop, almost a lock to stay there even as he fills out, while he’s got short swings from both sides of the plate — showing zero platoon split last year — and has started to grow into some doubles power, even hitting a surprising 14 homers, 13 of them for Modesto before he was traded. He’s the age of a college freshman and will go to High A to start the year. If his late-season fade was just fatigue, and he can add some strength to sustain his performance through an entire season, he’ll establish a clear floor for himself as a good utility player, with the upside still of a sometime All-Star who hits for high averages and saves 5-10 runs a year on defense at short.

5. Chase Petty, RHP

Age: 20 | 6-1 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 26 in 2021

Petty was up to 101 in high school, after which the Twins took him in the back of the first round (and traded him later to the Reds for Sonny Gray), but last year he worked on becoming a more complete pitcher rather than a carnival act, and it worked. He pitched more at 92-96 with a plus slider and threw way more strikes as the season progressed, walking just 4 guys in his last six starts in high A against 32 whiffs. His changeup has improved significantly since high school as well.

6. Spencer Steer, IF

Age: 25| 5-11 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 90 in 2019

Steer was one of three prospects the Reds acquired from the Twins for Tyler Mahle, and is the highest-floor guy, as he’s a major-league bench guy right now. I think he could be a little more than that as a multi-position regular, bouncing between second and third, filling in as an emergency shortstop, hitting for average without much power.

7. Matt McLain, SS/2B

Age: 23| 5-11 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 17 in 2021

McLain was the Reds’ first-round pick in 2021 out of UCLA, but an aggressive promotion to Double A to start his first full pro season backfired, as he hit just .232/.363/.453 with a 28 percent strikeout rate. He’s a smaller guy who was much more of a contact hitter with some incidental power as an amateur, while last year he tried to play bigger at the plate and hit for power (17 homers) but at too much of a cost in contact. He mostly played shortstop last year but the consensus is that he has to move to second base.

8. Brandon Williamson, LHP

Age: 25| 6-6 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 59 in 2019

Good stuff, bad command. Williamson sits 90-94 mph with a slider that looks like it should be plus and an above-average or better changeup, but he doesn’t finish consistently over his front side and leaves way too many pitches up in the zone or outside of it. He has the weapons to start and I would at least like to see what happens if he tries to stride a little longer toward the plate and make better use of that 6-foot-6 frame of his. He walked 14 percent of batters he faced last year, though, and without that consistency in his finish I don’t know if he will ever start.

9. Connor Phillips, RHP

Age: 22 | 6-2 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 64 in 2020

Phillips is 95-98 mph with two power breaking balls and a too-firm changeup, striking out almost 32 percent of hitters last year between High A and Double A, but with a 14 percent walk rate and enough trouble with lefties that he’s probably 80/20 to end up in relief. He might just have too much effort in the delivery to get there, but he won’t turn 22 until May and should at least get another year to start and see if he can harness this stuff. Both he and Williamson came over in the Jesse Winker/Eugenio Suarez trade.

10. Andrew Abbott, LHP

Age: 24 | 6-0 | 180 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 53 in 2021

Abbott is a finesse lefty with a 55 slider and 55 changeup, offering some deception in the delivery and enough fastball at 91-94 mph, but he didn’t throw enough strikes in double A after a promotion there last year — not even with the fastball, at about 63 percent. He’s not the type of pitcher who can or should work out of the zone consistently, as he can miss enough bats in the zone or at the edges to succeed. He has fourth starter upside if he can get from 45 control to 55, with no real reason I see in the delivery to say he can’t do it.

11. Mike Siani, OF

Age: 23 | 6-1 | 188 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 109 in 2018

A long-overdue swing change may have saved Siani’s career, as he cut his strikeout rate from 25 percent to 17 percent even with promotions to Double A and Triple A, and ended up hitting for more extra-base power anyway once he stopped trying to lift and pull everything. He’s a 70 defender in center and 70 runner. I don’t think he’s really a double-digit home run guy but he has a path to be a regular with high OBPs if he keeps improving his contact quality.

12. Jay Allen, OF

Age: 20 | 6-2 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 30 in 2021

Allen was the Reds’ second pick in the 2021 draft, a very good, well-rounded athlete who can show 60 run times and play center with a consistent line-drive swing but probably never more than fringe-average power. He has to get stronger to hit better in full-season ball, as last year he hit .225 combined between Low and High A with no power (just 3 homers among 21 total XBH in 91 games). He could be an everyday guy in center if he adds some muscle and turns more of those line drive outs into base hits.

13. Victor Acosta, SS

Age: 19 | 5-11 | 170 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2021

The 18-year-old Acosta came to the Reds from San Diego for Brandon Drury, bringing a high-contact approach at the plate that should let him hit for average and strong OBPs without much power. He’s a plus runner and has a plus arm, projecting to stay at shortstop over the long term with work, with the possibility of center field there if he can’t. He has to get stronger as well, a common theme for some of the Reds’ younger bats.

14. Sal Stewart, 1B

Age: 19| 6-3 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 32 in 2022

Stewart is a bat-only first baseman whom the Reds took with the 32nd pick in 2022 out of a Florida high school, showing advanced pitch recognition but with below-average present power. He does project to get to more power as he fills out, and his eye at the plate will carry him a long way until then, but as a right-handed hitting first baseman, he has to either show he’s a .320ish hitter or get to 20+ homer power.

15. Justin Boyd, OF

Age: 22 | 6-0 | 201 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 73 in 2022

Boyd was the Reds’ fourth pick, coming in the second Competitive Balance round, with the speed and reads to play center long term. He showed excellent pitch recognition as an amateur at Oregon State but scuffled in his brief pro debut. He did show a tendency to overexpand with two strikes, and may just need a real two-strike approach to get on track to be at least a fourth outfielder, with a chance to end up a regular if he sticks in center.

Update: Boyd was traded to the Guardians for outfielder Will Benson on Feb. 8.

16. Tyler Callihan, 2B/3B

Age: 23 | 6-1 | 205 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. XX in 20XX

Callihan has just had awful luck in pro ball, playing in 23 games in 2021 before he needed Tommy John surgery, then hurt his wrist in a car accident late during spring training last year. He’s a bat-first guy who’s always had great feel to hit, but didn’t impact the ball the same way in 2022 until near the very end — it’s a small sample, but from August 1st on, he hit .256/.324/.480, with more than half of his extra-base hits for all of 2022 coming in the last six weeks of the season. He’s missed a lot of time but I would like to see what a full, healthy season of him looks like in Double A this year.

17. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 3B

Age: 23 | 6-0 | 224 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 128 in 2021

Prospect number two from the Tyler Mahle trade was Encarnacion-Strand, who hit 32 homers across High A and Double A in 2022, with solid-average defense at third but too much of a tendency to chase offspeed stuff out of the zone. He could end up a regular even with a .290 OBP because of the power as long as he stays at third, but there’s also risk he can’t lay off that slider down and away enough to be more than an up-and-down guy.

18. Bryce Hubbart, LHP

Age: 22| 6-1 | 181 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 94 in 2022

The Reds’ third-rounder in 2022, Hubbart has a high-spin fastball with a ton of deception, getting swings and misses even though it has barely average velocity, and his changeup is close to average. He’s a fifth starter, maybe a four, although I’d really like to see the Reds find him something to be an average third pitch.

19. Cade Hunter, C

Age: 22 | 6-2 | 200 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 153 in 2022

Hunter was their fifth-round pick in 2022 after he broke out last spring for Virginia Tech, hitting 17 homers and catching well enough to project to stay at the position. There’s some swing and miss here that might limit his ceiling, but he missed most of 2020 (pandemic) and 2021 (broken hamate bone), so he might have more growth just due to his lack of reps.

20. Ricardo Cabrera, SS

Age: 18 | 5-11 | 178 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2022

Cabrera took home a $2.7 million bonus to sign with the Reds in January of 2022 as a physical shortstop who might come into some power but also could grow off the position in time. He had a solid pro debut in the DSL that was boosted by an absurd 14 HBP in 45 games, so, I don’t know, maybe stop standing on the plate? He has a plus arm and is a good enough athlete that shortstop is still possible, although I think right now I’d bet more on him becoming a third baseman who hits for enough power to be a regular. He should debut in the U.S. this summer.

Others of note

Logan Tanner is a plus defensive catcher with a 70 arm and has a short, high-contact swing to put the ball in play, with a good chance to be a major-league backup … Right-hander Kenya Huggins is up to 96 with a plus slider, coming from a rough delivery that probably pushes him to relief … Right-hander Zach Maxwell has two plus pitches in a fastball up to 101 and a wipeout slider, but he has no third pitch and walks everyone he sees, even when he’s out in public … Right-hander Chris McElvain stumbled to the finish for Vanderbilt last spring but that made him an upside play for the Reds in the eighth round; he’s got explosive life on a fastball with average velocity and can show a curve and slider that are above average, but it’s 40 command and as he wore down last spring he started walking guys left and right … Right-hander Joe Boyle is also up to 100, with three pitches you could grade as 55s, but it’s 40 control at best and he has to go to the bullpen and see if he can blow guys away enough to make up for the wildness … Right-hander Ricky Karcher is 97-100 with a short but effective slider and 45 changeup, but — wait for it — he walks too many guys, 40 in 56 innings last year between Double A and Triple A … Ariel Almonte is going to end up in an outfield corner with a chance to hit for plus power. He struck out 30 percent of the time in the ACL last summer at age 18 … Shortstop Jose Torres can really defend, but he struggled with contact in High A and may have been trying too hard to go for power when his swing is geared toward medium-quality, line-drive contact.

2023 impact

Steer could get 500 plate appearances and it looks like third base is his to lose in spring. They have a bunch of hard throwers I mentioned above who will probably show up in the major-league bullpen, although none of them will stick if they can’t throw strikes.

The fallen

Mat Nelson was their second-round pick in 2021 as a true senior out of Florida State. He hit just .219/.303/.364 last year as a 23-year-old in High A, not even showing the plus power that made him a prospect out of college. He’s a catcher, so he will get more time to try to right the ship, but his swing and approach both regressed badly in 2022.

Sleeper

Petty seems poised for a nice step forward after a year of consolidation, where he focused more on command and control and less on breaking the radar gun.

(Photo of Elly De La Cruz: Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images)

ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57k2prb2tnZ3xzfJFsZmlqX2WFcL7EnapmrJ%2BlenN8jKmpqKugmrC1ecWaqaZlo67AtbHMZqmappuasXA%3D

JBlogZ