Deep sleepers: Drafting a fantasy football team using only players taken after the 10th round

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This has to be one of, if not my favorite preseason fantasy football endeavor. Sleepers, dreamers… call them what you want. Nothing feels better than hitting late and scoring that long touchdown. Get ready to build an entire fantasy football squad dead set on competing, yet comprised solely of picks in the double-digit rounds. Not only does this process refine our knowledge of the deeper player pool, but in turn helps shape earlier draft decisions. Understanding what’s available in the later rounds can make clear which positional supplies are strained and when.

Using Consensus ADP data from FantasyPros, I lopped off the first 10 rounds of action to find my favorite Week 1 ballers being drafted after pick 120.

Russell Wilson, QB, DEN — ADP 129

After all my hooting and hollering about the importance of a running QB (even at a round premium), something has gone terribly wrong if I still need someone under center after Round 10. If I do get caught somehow, I’m falling back on the same principles from my piece on QB tiering — depth at the position creates consolidated scoring and enables us to play for upside. I have no clue if Wilson will be any good after what can only be described as a cringey Denver debut (and I personally like him for the record). Between the commercials, telling us about stretching in the aisles of an airplane, and nonstop terrible prime time play, it really feels like there’s only one direction to go from here.

Funny enough, we did see a definitive turnaround from Mr. Unlimited after the departure of Nathaniel Hackett. Wilson closed out the 2022 campaign with back-to-back Top 4 weekly finishes. During that span, we saw quick glimpses of his former self, finishing first in FAN PPG (23.4), eighth in EPA/Attempt (0.05), and third in Yards Per Attempt (8.1) while contributing classic high-IQ efficiency on the ground. Wilson’s designed rush% jumped to 10.0 in those final two games — nearly double the rate to that point. Although it was only 12 total attempts, they were good for five first downs and two touchdowns. The Broncos added uber-rational coaching this offseason in Sean Peyton, who selected Oklahoma WR Marvin Mims with the 63rd pick in the NFL draft to bolster the WR room.

If drafting Wilson does happen to pan out, we’re easily talking about Top 8 QB potential with little to no opportunity cost attached. If it doesn’t, the non-prohibitive cost makes it easy to move on from. One last point on single-QB formats — I rarely, if ever, draft a second quarterback, because I’m generally heavily invested in my first QB. If Wilson is my QB, I’m also thinking about grabbing a last-round high-upside play like Bryce Young or Sam Howell.

Jeff Wilson Jr., RB, MIA — ADP 151

If I need late RB production in Week 1, I’m heading down to sunny Florida for Miami’s Jeff Wilson, a subject of my recent depth chart piece. I don’t know how anyone can claim with any certainty how the Dolphins’ backfield touches will shake out. In fact, just looking back at last year, Wilson out-touched Raheem Mostert in five of the six games they were healthy together. And that still omits the fact that Wilson was added to the team midstream, immediately taking over the RB1 duties for a prolific offense. In his time with Miami from Week 9 on, Wilson posted a very respectable 4.7 Yards Per Rush, 2.33 Yards Before Contact Per Rush, 0.14 EPA/Rush, and a 17.5% Target Per Route Run. I’m not exactly sure why a quality back with a track record of high volume in every healthy game he played is going so late. Regardless, Wilson’s a perfect fit for our all-late squad with a strong chance to be startable.

Chuba Hubbard RB, CAR — ADP 160

Let me begin with my lack of conviction in this pick, but it’s no reason to be down. In fact, it’s exactly why we do these exercises. It feels impossible to find two running backs I feel good about starting by the time the 10th round rolls around. Now I know to prioritize the players in the tier above like Rachaad White, Isiah Pacheco, James Cook, and Rashaad Penny. I’m personally not leaving a draft without viable starters at every position, but if you do get stuck, look to Carolina.

I happened to be drafting Miles Sanders at ADP after he signed a massive contract to play for Deuce Staley again. That said, I never paid a premium because I worried about competition from Hubbard. After the Christian McCaffrey trade, Hubbard moved into a clear backup role. He popped in a few efficiency metrics, posting a higher Yards Per Carry (4.9) and Explosive Rush% (11.9) than starter D’Onta Foreman. Now Miles Sanders is banged up with a groin injury and Hubbard just logged 100% of the first-team snaps in the Panthers’ most recent exhibition game. If you’re in dire need of Week 1 production at the RB2 spot, this may be the last stop on the train. UPDATE: Per ESPN reporter David Newton, Panthers coach Frank Reich said there’s a chance RB Miles Sanders (groin) won’t play this preseason. Reich said the injury is “getting better . . . I think we’re getting close.”

Skyy Moore WR, KC — ADP 127

Believe it or not, my favorite moves in fantasy football are the ones that take zero stats to validate (cue up the post-hype narrative theme music, maestro). You’re telling me that I can get a legitimate chance at +100 targets of the highest quality from all universe-QB Patrick Mahomes after Round 10? On the same Chiefs offense that just led the NFL in Points Per Game (28.2), Yards Per Play (6.42), Average Drive Distance (39.1), and Drive Success% (46.4)? Just sign me up now and I can figure the rest out later. The departures of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman leave Kansas City’s slot and flank roles wide open for the taking. I’m assuming Moore’s price is suppressed due to frustrations with his rookie season. Perhaps we all should have seen it coming — Andy Reid’s system is notoriously complex and often leaves first-year players on the outside looking in. Moore has a real chance to be one of this year’s league-winning picks.

Alec Pierce WR, IND — ADP 161

Last year’s 53rd overall pick in the NFL draft, Pierce stands in line for a ridiculous bump in playing time and the market doesn’t seem to care. There’s no question this move assumes a certain amount of risk in the unknown. That said, it’s already firmly baked into the price. By the time the 13th round hits, other GMs are making YOLO picks and drafting backups. I’m focusing on playing for the win and attaching myself to an every-down role in an offense with a high ceiling. When Pierce played last year it was almost exclusively out wide, and now there’s literally no one in his way to replace Parris Campbell’s 604 Routes Run (T-9 in NFL). Any time there’s a new quarterback, there is a possibility for new chemistry to open the door for a breakout. Prospect analysts much sharper than myself insist Anthony Richardson throws a pretty deep ball that could mesh well with Pierce’s 96th percentile speed score, translating into long TDs.

Rashid Shaheed WR, NO — ADP 194

I couldn’t wait to get to this one. Shaheed is my No. 1 deep-dreaming, can’t-miss, leave-every-draft-with-him sleeper. Once you start approaching pick 200, I throw ADP out the window and look for potentially determinative ceiling plays with lopsided risk-reward-ratios. Enter the Saints’ sophomore from Weber State who made a tremendous impact once he started seeing the field toward the second half of 2022. From Week 7 on, among all wide receivers with +30 targets, Shaheed posted an elite 2.70 Yards Per Route Run (second behind Tyreek Hill), 1.77 EPAvsZone (first overall), and Fantasy Points Per Target (second behind Christian Watson). Shaheed recently aggravated a groin injury that’s currently being downplayed. NewOrleans.Football reports the Saints have “no concerns about Shaheed’s availability for Week 1, despite the fact that a groin injury is expected to keep him out for most of the team’s preseason slate”.

Luke Musgrave TE, GB — ADP 204

Besides Travis Kelce and Darren Waller, my projections and subsequent expectations for the TE position are again downright deflating from a fantasy perspective. I don’t have another player at the position I can get even remotely excited about for redraft leagues. In the case I don’t land my only early or late target, I’m dropping all the way back and looking to capitalize on more ambiguous situations. Take a nice long whiff of the conductor hat I made of my cheese for rookie Luke Musgrave. Green Bay let us know exactly what they thought of the Oregon State TE when they shelled out big-time draft capital for his services — 42nd overall pick. Then Musgrave played exactly 100% of the offensive snaps in the first quarter of preseason Week 1, leading the team in routes run and targets earned. There may not be another offensive environment with more moving parts than the Packers and given the discounted price, I’m not thinking twice about pushing my chips in the middle. Rookie tight ends have historically been a stay-away entity for many veteran fantasy gamers, but with the evolution of more specialized training, I believe those times, they are a-changin’.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @JohnLaghezza where I have a link pinned to my podcast with colleague Michael Salfino as well as inexpensive off-site ranks that also include formatted cheat sheets with a free downloadable .CSV.

(Mykal McEldowney-USA TODAY Sports)

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